Filing Trial
Three 8-K filings, cross-examined. A prosecutor argues each one is materially adverse and a defender argues the outlook is intact. Both use only the excerpt, and the highlighted sentences are what they rely on. The Quant Judge reads only computed values: JEV text scores and the pre-filing option chain. The market outcome comes after the verdict.
MO · 2025-12-11
On December 10, 2025, the Board elected Salvatore Mancuso to become Altria's CEO and Heather A. Newman to become Altria's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer ('CFO'), in each case, effective May 14, 2026 at the conclusion of the 2026 Annual Meeting. Ms. Newman, age 48, currently serves as Altria's Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy & Growth Officer since March 2022.
Prosecution
Altria's board replaced both of its top two officers in a single filing: a new CEO and a new CFO. The excerpt gives no reason for either change, and it describes the incoming CFO's current role as strategy and growth, not finance.
Defense
This is a planned succession with a five-month runway, timed to the annual meeting rather than forced by events. The incoming CFO is an insider who has held a senior strategy role since March 2022.
Judge
JEV intensity 3.6 out of 10, stability 98.4 percent. Classification: rubric level 4, Meaningful leadership change affecting financial oversight, but no disclosed strategy change. Before the filing, the option chain priced a move of plus or minus 4.8 percent over 21 sessions.
| Known at filing time (the verdict uses only these) | |
|---|---|
| JEV intensity (1-10) | 3.60 |
| JEV stability | 98.4% |
| JEV confidence | 0.894 |
| Classification | level 4: Meaningful leadership change affecting financial oversight, but no disclosed strategy change. |
| Implied move over 21 sessions | ±4.8% |
| Implied move to expiry | ±8.4% |
Outcome, revealed after the verdict
Judge · Outcome
The outcome, revealed after the verdict: the stock rose 4.1 percent, and the cash-secured put (5% out of the money, 3-6 month expiry) gained 1.20 percent of spot at 21 sessions.
| Realized move at 21 sessions | +4.1% |
| cash-secured put (5% out of the money, 3-6 month expiry) P&L | +1.20% of spot |
| Entry | close of the session before the filing (a was-it-priced diagnostic, not a tradeable entry) |
CVS · 2025-04-08
On April 7, 2025, the Board of Directors of CVS Health Corporation appointed Brian O. Newman to serve as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of CVS Health, effective May 12, 2025. Mr. Newman will receive an annualized base salary of $1.0 million and will be eligible to participate in CVS Health's annual bonus plan with a target annual cash bonus opportunity of 150% of his base salary. Mr. Newman's target annual equity award compensation will be $7.0 million, which for calendar year 2025 will be comprised of 60% performance stock units, 20% restricted stock units and 20% stock options.
Prosecution
The excerpt does not support a claim that this filing is materially adverse. It names a new CFO, a start date and a pay package; the only economic fact is a $7.0 million target equity award, which is compensation, not a change in the business.
Defense
The board made an orderly appointment with a fixed start date about five weeks out. Nothing in the excerpt suggests a departure under pressure or a change in strategy.
Judge
JEV intensity 3.3 out of 10, stability 99.1 percent. Classification: rubric level 3, Limited change to financial leadership with a narrow effect on execution. Before the filing, the option chain priced a move of plus or minus 9.4 percent over 21 sessions.
| Known at filing time (the verdict uses only these) | |
|---|---|
| JEV intensity (1-10) | 3.29 |
| JEV stability | 99.1% |
| JEV confidence | 0.980 |
| Classification | level 3: Limited change to financial leadership with a narrow effect on execution. |
| Implied move over 21 sessions | ±9.4% |
| Implied move to expiry | ±19.1% |
Outcome, revealed after the verdict
Judge · Outcome
The outcome, revealed after the verdict: the stock rose 7.2 percent, and the cash-secured put (5% out of the money, 3-6 month expiry) gained 4.16 percent of spot at 21 sessions.
| Realized move at 21 sessions | +7.2% |
| cash-secured put (5% out of the money, 3-6 month expiry) P&L | +4.16% of spot |
| Entry | close of the session before the filing (a was-it-priced diagnostic, not a tradeable entry) |
UPS · 2024-07-09
United Parcel Service, Inc. announced that it is appointing Brian M. Dykes as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Dykes, age 46, has been employed by the Company for over 25 years, most recently serving as Senior Vice President, Global Finance and Planning since April 2023.
Prosecution
The appointment is effective immediately, with no transition period. The excerpt does not say why the CFO seat needed filling at once or what happened to the previous CFO.
Defense
The new CFO is a 25-year company veteran who was already running global finance and planning. Promoting the person closest to the numbers is continuity, not disruption.
Judge
JEV intensity 2.9 out of 10, stability 96.2 percent. Classification: rubric level 3, Limited change to financial leadership with a narrow effect on execution. Before the filing, the option chain priced a move of plus or minus 6.1 percent over 21 sessions.
| Known at filing time (the verdict uses only these) | |
|---|---|
| JEV intensity (1-10) | 2.89 |
| JEV stability | 96.2% |
| JEV confidence | 0.830 |
| Classification | level 3: Limited change to financial leadership with a narrow effect on execution. |
| Implied move over 21 sessions | ±6.1% |
| Implied move to expiry | ±11.0% |
Outcome, revealed after the verdict
Judge · Outcome
The outcome, revealed after the verdict: the stock fell 9.3 percent, and the cash-secured put (5% out of the money, 3-6 month expiry) lost 2.65 percent of spot at 21 sessions.
| Realized move at 21 sessions | -9.3% |
| cash-secured put (5% out of the money, 3-6 month expiry) P&L | -2.65% of spot |
| Entry | close of the session before the filing (a was-it-priced diagnostic, not a tradeable entry) |
Data: jack-uf's JEV judgment-stability experiment (experiment_results/outcomes.csv), cfo_appointment filings 2024-2025. JEV intensity is the mean of five rubric-scored judgments (five wordings of the question); stability is 1 minus their mean pairwise gap ÷ 6. A demo, not a trading signal: the main study found no edge.